Prognosis Research (online)

Prognosis is a key concept in patient care. The methodology of prognostic research is however relatively underdeveloped. This is in contrast to its growing importance in clinical medicine. In the course, principles and methods of non-experimental prognostic research will be discussed. In lectures, practical exercises and discussion of examples, the practice of prognostic research in a clinical setting is addressed. Emphasis will be on design and statistical analysis of prognostic studies, construction and estimation of prediction rules and approaches to validation and generalization of research results. Problems with small datasets will be extensively discussed.

By the end of the course, you should be able to:

• understand the key characteristics and different types of prognosis research.
• set out the various steps involved in performing prognosis research.

In particular, you should be able to:

• demonstrate insight in the key characteristics and different types of prognosis research.
• distinguish the different steps of performing prognosis research.
• demonstrate insight in different modelling approaches for prognosis research.
• construct a prognostic model.
• know how to apply modelling techniques to deal with overfitting in small datasets.
• know differences in modelling with binary, time-to-event, and categorical outcomes.

3 weeks, 14 hours per week (online)

Exam: 27 February 2026, from 14:15 – 16:15 CET.
Re-examination: 17 April 2026
Exams are online using online proctoring.

Note: these times might be subject to change. The exact time and place will be announced as soon as possible in the learning environment and any changes announced there will overrule the information here.

The exam is not compulsory. However, if you want to receive the Course Certificate and the credits, it is obligatory to take the exam.

It might be that, due to a force majeure situation, you cannot be present during the first exam moment. Participants should contact the MSc Epidemiology through MSc-Epidemiology@umcutrecht.nl

Even though you can manage your own time our courses are not intended as individual education. We offer personalized online learning with lots of interaction with peer students, the E-moderator and lecturers. Flexibility from students, a positive attitude towards teachers and peers and the willingness to learn together and help each other is invaluable to our courses. To experience maximum interaction, we advise you to log on several times per week.

Note that the starting dates of courses, interim deadlines, and dates of exams are fixed, but you can choose when and where you want to watch web lectures and work on assignments. The e-moderator of the course will inform you about the beginning of the course and about deadlines during the course.

The average required study workload for the courses of MSc Epidemiology Postgraduate Online is 14 hours per week. You will need this time to study, to keep up with the assignments and course material.

Please note that this course is part of an existing program within the Graduate School of Life Sciences. Tuitition fees may alter during the year.

To enroll in this course, you need:

• An academic (university) level of thinking
• Sufficient proficiency in English reading and writing

Compulsory study materials:

• ‘Epidemiology – An Introduction’ by K.J. Rothman, Oxford University Press, 2nd edition, June 2012, ISBN-13: 978-0199754557.